Explained: Why half of Iran didn’t vote to elect new president, and what it means for the country

Voters cast their ballots for the presidential elections at a polling station in Tehran, Iran. AP

Less than 50 percent of eligible Iranians cast their ballot as the country voted to choose its new president, who succeeds outgoing reformist Hassan Rouhani. Preliminary results showed that the man considered to be a shoo-in for the job, hardline judge Ebrahim Raisi, won a landslide, had secured close to 18 million of the total 28 million or so votes with counting still on.

Who were the contestants?

Initially, there were close to 600 candidates that had come forward to contest these elections, but Iran’s peculiar power structure meant that finally only four of them were left in the fray.

That is because all candidates in Iran are vetted by the country’s Guardian Council. This council, which comprises six clerics appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and six Islamic jurists, is required to clear all candidates who want to run for president. But given its composition, it is no surprise that mostly it is hardline and ultra-conservative candidates who clear the council’s scrutiny.

Activists also complain that the Guardian Council has never allowed women to contest presidential elections — there were none in the fray this time although about 40 of them had come forward to contest — although the Iranian Constitution does not forbid them from fighting in the polls.

For this year’s elections, the council cleared seven names out of 592. All of the candidates were men and except for a former central bank governor, who was running on a moderate platform, all were conservatives and hardliners.

Among the names rejected this time was Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, the populist former president of the Shia-majority country.

Three of the seven people cleared, however, dropped out of the race, leaving only four names on the ballot sheets. Outgoing President Rouhani was not eligible to contest after winning the maximum of two consecutive four-year terms allowed under the constitution.

What is Iran’s political structure?

The West Asian country is led by Ali Khamenei, who is the Supreme Leader and enjoys his position till death or ill health prevents him from ruling the country.

The Supreme Leader is the commander-in-chief of Iran’s powerful armed forces, whose leaders report directly to him.

The Iranian president is the head of the executive branch of the government and is notionally in charge, but he, too, is effectively a subordinate to the Supreme Leader.

The country’s parliament is called the Majlis.

Who’s Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s next president?

The 60-year-old Raisi is a conservative leader who heads the country’s judiciary. He is seen as being close to the 81-year-old Khamenei and reportedly has played a key role in the trials and harsh sentencing of political prisoners in the country.

Reports say that he was part of a panel that allegedly oversaw thousands of executions of political prisoners in the late 1980s. It is over his alleged role in those deaths, and in the suppression of other anti-government protests, that the US put Raisi on a sanctions list after he was named Iran’s judicial chief in 2019.

That could give rise to interesting diplomatic situations in the event that Raisi, as president, is required to make international trips.

Rouhani’s term lasts till August this year and he makes way for Raisi at a critical time for Iran.

The country has been battered by COVID-19 and, after former US President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal, fresh sanctions have served to add to the country’s woes, sending the economy into a tailspin amid massive inflation.

Significantly, analysts say that victory in these polls could increase Raisi’s chances of succeeding Khamenei as the Supreme Leader.

What explains the low turnout in the Iran election?

Reports say that this year saw the lowest turnout ever for an election since the 1979 Iranian Revolution removed the monarchy and installed the present political system.

A low turnout was seen as an issue by the country’s leadership as that hands ammunition to the likes of the US to criticise the absence of democratic rights in the country. It also gives rise to arguments against engaging with the Iranian leadership.

That would explain why Khamenei himself came out with an appeal to voters to make these elections a success.

“Each vote counts… come and vote and choose your president… this is important for the future of your country… Low turnout will increase the pressure of the enemies,” Khamenei was quoted as saying after casting his vote on Friday.

However, reports suggested that most Iranians weren’t impressed by such appeals as they saw the result of the elections as a foregone conclusion.