How the Russia-Ukraine war has pushed a major reset button in Europe

What is occurring in Europe, happens once in a generation. We may hope that it doesn’t happen too frequently. What we see today is unexpected in timing, but not unanticipated. Europe is at war, for the second time since World War II. We all remember how Europe fought bitterly over Yugoslavia and brought back the concept of balkanisation, in the decade after the Cold War ended from 1991. It was a brutal experience. Europe thought this happened only in Africa and Asia.

Ukraine seems to be going in a similar brutal direction. Will a new wall come up near the Dnieper river?

When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 it brought Europe together in a peaceful manner. The new Europe wanted to share prosperity and security for all. The European project is what most European leaders swore by, and NATO and more particularly the US, agreed to the new order. European leaders particularly Merkel, Sarkozy, Hollande, Macron, and the UK Prime Ministers all swore by it. This order was based on functional concepts of building cooperative economic and social parentships across Europe. It believed that fostering economic cooperation, will lead to more trade among them and if they become economically interdependent, they were more likely to avoid aggression and conflict.

This is now the first big challenge for the EU after Brexit. The British are out of the EU leaving another structural change. Earlier the UK, France and Germany were like a guiding force for European security matters. Post Brexit, the EU is challenged while the UK bellows its antagonism to Russia right behind the US lead. In security terms, the UK has robustly cultivated alliances like AUKUS and is seen as a security provider. Without the British, it is left to the Franco-German partnership to steer Europe. Among them the Germans did not view security as a military concept alone.

In 2004, ten new countries joined the EU: Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. This was the largest single enlargement in terms of people, and number of countries. Seven were former Soviet allies; Bulgaria joined in 2007 and Croatia in 2013. The expansion to East Europe was almost complete. Turkey (applied in 1987), North Macedonia (applied in 2004), Montenegro (applied in 2008), Albania (applied in 2009) and Serbia (applied in 2009) remain candidates but they are not held up for any reason associated with Russia. Now Ukraine and Moldova have sought urgent membership to counter Russia.

With NATO things had moved faster. In 1999, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic joined NATO, amid Russian opposition. Further expansion came with the accession of seven Central and Eastern European countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia in 2004 alongside their EU accession. Croatia joined in 2009, followed by Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in  2020. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, and Ukraine are NATO candidate countries.

The European project expanded for economic reasons. For security, they preferred NATO. The rush of American forces now to Romania, Poland and other East European countries manifests this.

Within the European project, there were growing differences between the Eastern and Western Europeans on values of the European Union. Similarly, there was a divergence with southern Europe, who felt they needed more economic flows.

The EU and the US had strains across the Atlantic on climate change, on security, on Russia, on China and on trade. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) failed to emerge. The US dithered on the Kyoto Protocol. The US wants Europe to have a more countervailing view of Russia and China.

This has come to a head with the Russian invasion of Ukraine to prevent its integration into the EU or NATO. The strategic autonomy that Europe was cultivating and not investing enough in security is leading it to dovetail behind US aggressive intent.

That is why you see today the French talking more about security. The French have often been different. Charles de Gaulle always had an independent view. While assuming the EU presidency in January 2022, Emmanuel Macron at the European Parliament spoke about a “Europe supported by the values that we uphold and that have united us, this Europe built on a unique model in the world balancing freedom and solidarity, tradition and progress. In this civilisation that stands apart, rooted in centuries of history and in the unprecedented integration of the past 70 years, which put an end to constant civil wars on our continent”. And on Russia he said: “Europe needs to build a collective security order on our continent. Our continent’s security requires a strategic reinforcement of our Europe as a power of peace, a balancing power, particularly in its dialogue with Russia. I have been advocating this dialogue for several years.” Can France and Europe resurrect this idea after what has happened?

Germany was always reluctant to raise defence spending. The ‘traffic light coalition’ in their Coalition Compact avoided committing to higher defence spending but were committed to developing an independent EU foreign and security policy. Germany had for years turned Ostpolitik into an economic partnership model with Russia and China. Now, Germany overnight did everything the Americans sought. Not only did the Chancellor announce a commitment to have defence budgets at 2 percent of GDP, he is willing to write it into the Constitution!

Germany was always reluctant to send troops abroad and was seen as such in Iraq and Afghanistan with no or little participation. Germany has taken big steps to change. Much like Chinese aggression goaded Japan to rearm, the sleeping German security establishment is now alive to the threats of Russian action. When Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s Green Foreign Minister, went to meet Antony Blinken, she emphasised the Normandy process which is a Germany-France-Russia-Ukraine group which evolved the Minsk protocols. They wanted to deal with Russia in a European manner, using their energy partnership as leverage. Now look at what happened. The Russians think Germany and Europe are ensnared and Europe is trying to escape their embrace, but can’t do it without the US.

The reset in Europe now will be among themselves, with Russia, with candidate countries, with NATO and over the Transatlantic. A major transformation is underway.

The writer is a former Ambassador to Germany. Views expressed are personal.

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